NFL Week 13 Picks

Well, this week’s NFL games have certainly taken a little bit of a turn, haven’t they?  To call the news about Chiefs linebacker Jovan Belcher “shocking” would be quite an understatement.  Until the tragedy, which will put a very dark cloud over all of Sunday’s games, we were positioned for a pretty good Sunday of December football.  The week’s already off to a pretty good start, as the Falcons avenged their only loss of the season and made it virtually impossible for the Sinners to actually make the playoffs.  And Sunday’s games will go on.Jaguars (2-9) at Bills (4-7): Buffalo-Former Bills coach Mike Mularkey, who led Buffalo to its last winning record, a 9-7 mark in 2004, returns for the first time as head coach of the Jaguars.  Jacksonville actually won a game last week, beating the Titans at home to take away any chance they had at the No. 1 pick.  The Bills play better at home, which is a good thing, seeing as they play three of their last five games in Buffalo, plus their home-away-from-home game in Toronto.  Those home games are also against teams that aren’t very good (Jaguars, Rams, Jets).  The Bills have a chance to finish strong and salvage a decent record.

Seahawks (“6-5”) at Bears (8-3): Chicago-The NFC is very weird.  All of the playoff contenders keep doing the same thing every week, which means nothing changes.  Seattle made the NFL’s longest road trip and lost in Miami, but they’re still in playoff position because the Bucs and Vikings also lost last week.  The Bears are the exception to that rule.  They snapped their two-game losing streak with a victory over Minnesota last week, regaining the division lead after one week as a wild card.  The Bears are the better team, and they have Jay Cutler back at quarterback.  I’d be very surprised if Chicago loses.

Colts (7-4) at Lions (4-7): Indianapolis-Detroit is favored in this one, and I was actually tempted to take the Lions.  Especially after that tremendous effort they put forth against the Texans on Thanksgiving.  But, for some reason, I can’t do it.  I think it’ll be close, but Indianapolis will win this game.  As much as it pains me to say it, I think the Colts are playoff-bound.

Vikings (6-5) at Packers (“7-4”): Green Bay-So much for the Packers being the best team in football.  That Sunday night game against the Giants last week wasn’t even anything that resembled close.  Perhaps that’s the Packers’ egg for the season.  I still think they’re a playoff team, but if they want to catch the Bears in the division, they can’t afford a loss here.  The Vikings can’t afford a loss, either.  They’re on the short end of all the playoff tie breakers, which means they’re probably going to have to win in order to have any chance of getting in.  I don’t think the NFC North gets three playoff teams, so, this could, in effect, be a semi-elimination game.  Sorry Vikings.  The Packers aren’t losing at home.  Not after last week’s dismal effort.

Texans (10-1) at Titans (4-7): Houston-Since the Falcons played on Thursday night, they beat the Texans to the 11-win mark.  Houston can’t clinch the division this week, but can clinch a playoff berth.  They’re a team that needed a rest after playing almost 10 full quarters in five days and almost losing both games.  (Against two teams that shouldn’t have taken them to overtime.)  Well, they got it.  The Texans should be refreshed after somehow surviving both those games and finally getting that break.  They lock up their playoff spot and work on cementing that No. 1 seed before next week’s showdown in New England.

Panthers (3-8) at Chiefs (1-10): Carolina-I locked in my Panthers pick before everything went down in Kansas City.  Suddenly this meaningless game between two bad teams is one of the most significant matchups of the weekend.  One of two things will happen: the Chiefs will rally together and win this one for their fallen teammate, or those emotions will overcome them.  I think it’ll be the former, but since picks are due before the Thursday night game in my league, I’ve gotta stick with Carolina.

49ers (8-2-1) at Rams (4-6-1): San Francisco-The participants in the NFL’s first tie in four years three weeks ago are back at it, this time in St. Louis.  The big difference between the 49ers now and the 49ers then is that their starting quarterback is now Colin Kaepernick.  And that tie has inspired them to play some of their best football of the season in their last two games.  Better yet, it took the 49ers out of all the tiebreakers.  They’ll likely end up with a first-round bye instead of the Bears as a result.  As for the rematch with St. Louis, it won’t be another tie.  The 49ers will do to the Rams what they should’ve done three weeks ago.

Patriots (8-3) at Dolphins (5-6): New England-I couldn’t figure out how until this morning, but New England will clinch the division with a win this week.  I don’t see any possible way that doesn’t happen.  Sure, the Dolphins are the one AFC East team that always seems to find a way to give the Patriots trouble, but you all saw that game against the Jets on Thanksgiving night, right?  Yeah, that was their fifth straight win, and they’ve had extra rest since then.  That streak will reach seven before ending against either Houston or San Francisco.

Cardinals (4-7) at Jets (4-7): Jets-I’m not picking the Jets because I suddenly feel so confident in their ability to win football games.  This is more about the Cardinals, who’ve somehow managed to turn a 4-0 start into a seven-game losing streak.  I don’t like their chances of snapping it in a game on the East Coast.  Especially one that starts at 1:00.

Buccaneers (6-5) at Broncos (8-3): Denver-A Broncos win takes care of two birds with one stone.  Not only will Denver clinch the AFC West, they’ll lock up the NFC South for Atlanta, too.  Congratulations Falcons on your NFC South title!  Peyton’s on a roll.  The Broncos aren’t going to lose at home to Tampa Bay.  And, amazingly, the three teams tied for that last NFC playoff spot will all do the same thing once again.

Browns (3-8) at Raiders (3-8): Cleveland-These home games against equally-bad teams are typically the ones that Oakland gets its yearly five wins in.  (Remember that two-game winning streak against Jacksonville and Kansas City?)  But I don’t think that’ll be the case this time.  The Browns have been playing better and better each week, and they beat the Steelers last week.  Call me crazy, but I’m going with Cleveland in this one.

Bengals (6-5) at Chargers (4-7): Cincinnati-The lack of Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh and the Bengals’ three-game winning streak has suddenly thrust Cincinnati right into the thick of the AFC playoff picture.  A trip to San Diego is always tough, especially in December, which is the month they save their best football for.  Except this time the Chargers are playing out the string.  Even if they run the table and go 9-7, the playoffs are a very far-fetched idea for even the most ardent Chargers fans.  Sure, their last two games have been against the Raiders and Chiefs, but if you’re going to play three straight games against the AFC West, you might as well take advantage of it.  Like the Bengals will.

Steelers (6-5) at Ravens (9-2): Baltimore-Two weeks ago, these two met on Sunday night with first place on the line.  Now the Steelers are in a situation where they can’t win the division if they lose this game.  Unfortunately, Ben Roethlisberger is still out.  So is Byron Leftwich.  And we saw last week that Charlie Batch isn’t exactly the answer.  Regardless of what happens this week, that loss to Cleveland all but eliminated Pittsburgh from the AFC North race.  The Ravens will win this one and put their archrivals away.  The Steelers will be playing for a wild card over the season’s final four weeks.

Eagles (3-8) at Cowboys (5-6): Dallas-The entire NFC East is on the national stage for the second straight week.  In the Sunday nighter, it’s Dallas’ battle to stay relevant against an Eagles team that has officially given up (as evidence by their loss, at home, to the Panthers on Monday night).  The Thanksgiving loss to Washington was bad, but not catastrophic.  The Cowboys can theoretically win out and make the playoffs.  Even though we all know that’s not going to happen, a home game against the Eagles is a good start.  They’ll win, and, since Cowboys fans are as delusional as Jets fans, everybody will suddenly think they’re great agin, even though all they would’ve done is beaten a last-place team.

Giants (7-4) at Redskins (5-6): Giants-If the Giants had lost to the Packers last Sunday night, this game would’ve taken on a whole different dynamic.  It would’ve been a Monday night showdown for first place in RG3’s first primetime home game.  Instead, the Giants can tighen their stranglehold on the division by sweeping the Redskins.  Sunday night was a statement game.  More so than the Redskins’ Thanksgiving win in Dallas.  Of course, a Washington win makes the NFC East wide open (and it would make the first-place Giants 2-3 in the division).  The Giants know that.  They don’t want to take the chance.  We’ll see a typical Giants-Redskins December Monday night game.  But we’ll also see a Tom Coughlin December Giants win.

This Week: 0-1
Last Week: 11-5
Season: 121-55-1