NFL Week 17 Picks

NFL Week 17 Picks

Well kids, we’ve reached the final week of the 2012 NFL season.  As Week 17 dawns, 10 of the 12 playoff spots are clinched, as are six of the eight divisions.  But that doesn’t mean we’ve got a boring slate of games in store for Sunday.  Just the opposite, actually.  We’ve got Cowboys-Redskins for the NFC East title on Sunday night, among others.  Of course, we’ve got some meaningless duds like Jaguars-Texans, too.  That’s why I’m breaking this week’s picks into three categories: Games That Really Matter, Games That Somewhat Matter, and Games That Don’t Matter.

GAMES THAT REALLY MATTER
Bears (9-6) at Lions (4-11): Chicago-The Bears’ road to the playoffs isn’t as long as it might seem.  Beat the last-place Lions, hope the Vikings lose, and they’re in.  Although, it must be an incredibly awkward position for Chicago to have to rely on a victory by bitter archrival Green Bay.  I said way back early in the season when they were still one of the best teams in football that the Bears were all but a lock for the playoffs.  They’ve taken a very roundabout route, but the Bears are still set up to get in.  They’ll take care of their part by beating Detroit.

Texans (12-3) at Colts (10-5): Houston-Because they laid an egg last week against Minnesota, the Texans haven’t locked up AFC home field yet.  That means they’ve actually got something to play for this week in Indianapolis, somewhere they’ve never won.  The Colts, meanwhile, don’t have anything to play for.  They’re locked into the No. 5 seed.  With everything at stake, the Texans will come to play.  Houston’s been the best team in the AFC all year.  They could end up dropping to the No. 3 seed with a loss.  The Texans are too good to let that happen.

Chiefs (2-13) at Broncos (12-3): Denver-How does Kansas City have five Pro Bowlers?  I still can’t get over that.  The NFL should be embarrassed by it.  Anyway, a Broncos win locks up at least the No. 2 seed, and with Houston playing an early game, they’ll know pretty early on if they still have a shot at home field.  (Regardless, they’ll have to keep the starters in the whole time, since New England plays at the same time.)  Uh, yeah.  The Broncos clinch a first-round bye and take an 11-game winning streak into the playoffs, while the Chiefs wrap up the top pick in April.

Packers (“11-4”) at Vikings (9-6): Green Bay-Somebody clinches something.  Either Green Bay secures a first-round bye or Minnesota claims a surprise playoff berth.  Then there’s Adrian Peterson’s pursuit of Eric Dickerson’s all-time rushing record.  There’s more at stake than there should be, though.  That Seahawks “win” over the Packers courtesy of the replacement refs is hanging over the entire NFC playoff picture.  If not for that game, Green Bay’s bye would already be locked up.  The Packers take care of business and get to sit and watch the wild card games, which, thanks to them, Minnesota won’t be playing in.

Dolphins (7-8) at Patriots (11-4): New England-New England can end up seeded anywhere from No. 1 to No. 4 in the AFC.  The Patriots need a win and losses by both the Texans and Broncos (which doesn’t seem likely) to clinch home field, while a win and a loss by either Houston or Denver means they get a first-round bye.  Meanwhile, a loss and a Baltimore win drops New England to the No. 4 seed.  Needless to say, they’ve got every reason to go out and play hard against a Dolphins team that traditionally doesn’t fare well in December division road games.  The Dolphins are usually the one AFC East team capable of giving New England trouble, but not this time.  New England wins, which is all it can do, then hopes either the Broncos or Texans lose.

Cardinals (5-10) at 49ers (10-4-1): San Francisco-I think we can all agree the 49ers have been Jekyll and Hyde during the last two weeks.  For most of the game against the Patriots, they looked like a legitimate contender to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.  Then last week in Seattle, they just let the Seahawks run all over them.  As a result, the 49ers not only dropped out of the No. 2 seed, they still haven’t clinched the NFC West yet.  They’ll take care of that by beating the Cardinals while also doing some scoreboard-watching.  If they win and the Vikings also beat the Packers, San Francisco gets next week off.  If not, the 49ers are stuck playing next week, potentially on the road.  They won’t let that happen.

Cowboys (8-7) at Redskins (9-6): Washington-The game of the week is also the final game of the 2012 regular season.  Archrivals Dallas and Washington square off with the NFC East title on the line.  The winner’s in as the NFC’s No. 4 seed.  The Redskins can also get in as a wild card if Minnesota and Chicago both lose, while Dallas is out with a loss.  Washington’s remarkable run was started with a win in Dallas on Thanksgiving, and we’ve since all become believers in Robert Griffin III and Co.  The Redskins’ first division title since 1999 is there for the taking, and you know their fans will be into it from the start.  Look at what happened with Seattle and San Francisco last week.  Washington looks like a playoff team.  Dallas doesn’t.  Hail to the Redskins.

GAMES THAT SOMEWHAT MATTER
Ravens (10-5) at Bengals (9-6): Baltimore-I wonder how much the starters are going to play in this one.  Both teams are headed to the playoffs, Cincinnati’s locked into the No. 6 seed, and Baltimore needs a win and a lot of help to move up to the No. 3 seed.  In other words, I’m not sure the Ravens go out of their way to win this one.  They know they’re playing next week no matter what, and do they really want to play back-to-back games against a division opponent?  A Cincinnati win wouldn’t be a surprise, but I’ll need to actually see the Bengals beat the Steelers and Ravens in consecutive weeks before I officially predit it.

Eagles (4-11) at Giants (8-7): Giants-Thanks to consecutive duds in Atlanta and Baltimore, the Giants’ playoff chances are on life support.  Even if they win this week.  They’re not going to get in.  They will, however, win in what’s likely Andy Reid’s final game as Eagles head coach.  Will it also be Michael Vick’s final game as an Eagle?  I love it that Donovan McNabb called out Philly fans this week pointing out (what was obvious to fans of all other teams) that they didn’t know how good they had it when the Eagles were losing the NFC Championship Game every year.  It’s sad that Andy Reid’s going to go out like this.

Rams (7-7-1) at Seahawks (“10-5”): Seattle-I’m putting this one down as “somewhat matters” because the Seahawks don’t control their own destiny.  Yes, Seattle knows they’re in the playoffs, but they need a win and help to move up from No. 5 to No. 3.  They can even get a first-round bye thanks to the replacement refs.  Two years ago, these two met in Seattle in the season finale, and the Seahawks won to clinch the division at 7-9.  This year, there’s no questioning the legitimacy of Seattle’s playoff berth.  They’ve won four straight and, along with Denver and Washington, are one of the hottest teams in football.  And they’re the team no one in the NFC wants to see in the playoffs.  Fortunately for whoever wins the NFC East, they’ll get to host Seattle.  Because the Seahawks will take care of their business, but not get the help they need to win the NFC West.

GAMES THAT DON’T MATTER
Buccaneers (6-9) at Falcons (13-2): Atlanta-This game falls into the “doesn’t matter” category because the Falcons have already locked up the No. 1 seed in the NFC and will likely keep their starters on the bench for most of the game.  The Bucs showed so much promise when they were 6-4, but they’ve lost five straight heading into the finale, and need to win to avoid last place (which might happen anyway).  The Falcons’ only two losses this season were division road games at New Orleans and Carolina.  I’m not sure it matters if Atlanta’s starters play or not.  The Falcons equal their franchise-best record by going 14-2.

Jets (6-9) at Bills (5-10): Buffalo-Greg McElroy suffered a concussion last week, so Mark Sanchez is once again the Jets’ starting quarterback.  And the New York media only has a couple more days to make a big deal about Tim Tebow before he gets cut/traded/whatever.  The Jets circus mercifully concludes its 2012 season the way it began–with a matchup against the Bills.  The Jets won the opener, but both of these teams are incredibly different now.  Since the Bills are less of a mess, they’re the pick.

Jaguars (2-13) at Titans (5-10): Tennessee-Right up there with Jets-Bills as the most irrelevant games of the day.  The only thing at stake is the No. 1 pick, which Jacksonville can clinch with a loss and a Chiefs win in Denver.  The Jaguars picked up one of their two wins the first time they played the Titans, but since the game’s in Nashville, I’ll say Tennessee takes this one to earn a season split.

Panthers (6-9) at Sinners (7-8): New Orleans-I give New Orleans a lot of credit.  They really got things turned around after that 0-4 start.  Very few people thought they’d actually have a .500 record at stake in their last game, but that’s exactly the position they’ve put themselves in thanks to that overtime victory in Dallas last week.  With Sean Payton locked up for next season, they’ll use a very respectable 8-8 finish as a springboard for 2013.

Browns (5-10) at Steelers (7-8): Pittsburgh-Did you ever think the Browns-Steelers game would fall into the “irrelevant” category because both teams were out of playoff contention?  It’s unbelievable to think we won’t see the Steelers again until September.  Or that they need to win a meaningless game against Cleveland just to finish .500.  The Steelers have too much pride to settle for 7-9.  Or to get swept by the Browns.  In fact, it was that loss in Cleveland that started Pittsburgh on the path that knocked them out of the postseason.

Raiders (4-11) at Chargers (6-9): San Diego-The final game of the Norv Turner Era in San Diego.  I give the Chargers credit, though.  They’re having their customary solid December, picking up road wins against the Steelers and Jets, with last week’s victory coming in a 1:00 game.  Back on the West Coast to take on the division rival Raiders, who’ll be starting Terrelle Pryor, in the finale, San Diego sends Norv Turner out a winner.

NFC Teams Clinching Playoff Spots: Washington, Chicago
Playoff Seeds: AFC-(1) Houston, (2) Denver, (3) New England, (4) Baltimore, (5) Indianapolis, (6) Cincinnati; NFC-(1) Atlanta, (2) Green Bay, (3) San Francisco, (4) Washington, (5) Seattle, (6) Chicago

Last Week: 9-7
Season: 159-80-1

Written by Joe Brackets, featured blogger…….