NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks
NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks
by Ask Hoffa’s exclusive sports Guru Joe Brackets:
I can’t believe we’re already at Wild Card Weekend. Although, if you’ve watched TV or listened to the radio at all this week, you wouldn’t even know it’s the playoffs. There’s the “controversy” about Rex Ryan being in the Bahamas and his wife’s tattoo of Mark Sanchez, as if anybody actually cares, and all the usual coach firings/interviews. I’ve gotta say I’m shocked that the Andy Reid thing moved so quickly. And I certainly didn’t expect him to end up in Kansas City. Another coaching prediction: Lovie Smith (who didn’t deserve to get fired) ends up with the Bills.
Now on to the teams actually still playing football. I’m not going to go crazy and make a Super Bowl projection right now, but I do have to say that the four teams I think are most likely to make a run to New Orleans are Denver, New England, San Francisco and Green Bay, with an outside shot to the Washington-Seattle winner. Of course, three of those teams don’t play this week. As for those that do…
AFC
#6 Bengals (10-6) at #3 Texans (12-4): Cincinnati-I think it’s safe to say that the biggest loser last week (the biggest loser of the last month, actually) was the Texans. Two weeks ago, Houston was sitting pretty. The Texans needed to win just one of their last two games to wrap up home field advantage, and it sure looked like the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC would go through Houston. But after losses to the Vikings and Colts, Houston dropped all the way to the No. 3 seed and, as a result, has to play an extra game and doesn’t have a bye week.
A month ago, I would’ve said the winner of this game would be a no-brainer. I still think that. Only the team that’s going to win is Cincinnati. Other than the Broncos, the Bengals might be the hottest team in the entire AFC entering the playoffs. They went 7-1 during the second half of the season, and the only loss was by one-point to Dallas. More impressively, the Bengals have beaten the Steelers and Ravens in the last two weeks. The two AFC North heavyweights have always been the Bengals’ biggest obstacle, and wins over both in back-to-back weeks can only help the confidence.
Meanwhile, Houston is reeling. The Texans have lost three out of four to go from AFC favorites to Super Bowl longshots. This is the second time in their history that the Texans have been in the playoffs, and the second time that they’re hosting Cincinnati in the wild card round. This year’s game will be different than last year’s, though. The Bengals will win. 28-20.
#5 Colts (11-5) at #4 Ravens (10-6): Baltimore-Five of the six AFC playoff teams are the same as last year. The only newcomer is the Colts, which is remarkable considering last season’s 2-14 record and the complete transformation that franchise went under. Most people thought Andrew Luck would make people forget about Peyton eventually. But I don’t think anyone expected it to happen this soon. Chuck Pagano and Bruce Arians should share NFL Coach of the Year honors.
Indy returns to the playoffs for the 12th time in 14 years against the team with the longest active streak of postseason appearances–Baltimore. This is Baltimore’s fifth straight season playing in January, but this year has the added element of every game the Ravens play potentially being Ray Lewis’ last. (ESPN.com had a poll the other day asking who was the better linebacker, Ray Lewis or Lawrence Taylor. You can’t compare them. They played two entirely different positions! Outside linebacker and middle linebacker are not even close to the same.)
I don’t read that much into the Ravens’ loss last week. They knew they were pretty much locked into the four-seed and knew they couldn’t get a bye no matter what, so Baltimore’s biggest concern was resting starters for this week. That Ravens defense was reeling towards the end of the regular season, but the starters have been gradually returning from injury, and Lewis will be coming back for the playoffs. That should be enough to give Luck all sorts of problems in his first career playoff game. Baltimore, meanwhile, is battle-tested. The Ravens haven’t just made the playoffs every year since 2008, they’ve won their first game each time. Baltimore has lost its last two postseason games against Indianapolis, but that streak comes to an end. The Ravens win a playoff game for the fifth straight year. 21-13.
NFC
#6 Vikings (10-6) at #3 Packers (“11-5”): Green Bay-Of all the teams playing this weekend, Green Bay is the one best equipped to make a Super Bowl run. The Packers had to play three road games two years ago and that didn’t faze them, so the opportunity to play a Saturday night game at Lambeau before potential visits to San Francisco and Atlanta this season certainly won’t. (Although, they did lose to Randy Moss in the Vikings at Lambeau in the playoffs in 2004.)
This, of course, is a rematch of last week’s game, which Minnesota won to not just get themselves into the playoffs, but also screw over a pair of NFC North rivals. The Packers ended up dropping to the No. 3 seed, and the Bears were knocked out of the playoffs (and cost Lovie Smith his job).
Playoff games between division rivals are always the toughest ones to predict. Especially when they meet in back-to-back weeks. The Packers let Adrian Peterson (shut up please, you’re not going to be the MVP) run wild in the two regular season meetings, so you would think they’re going to adjust their defensive game plan to focus on him. Should Green Bay find a way to contain Peterson, Minnesota will have to rely on Christian Ponder (in his first playoff game) and the rest of the offense to score enough points to win. I’m not sure they can do that. Green Bay will likely do different things offensively, as well. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a heavy dose of running, not just to keep Peterson off the field, but because of how frigid the Frozen Tundra could be on a Saturday night in January. And, if I were a coach or owner, I’d trust Aaron Rodgers to find a way to win me a playoff game more than any quarterback playing this weekend. It won’t be as high-scoring as last week’s game, and Green Bay should be in control most of the way. The Packers win it 27-17.
#5 Seahawks (“11-5”) at #4 Redskins (10-6): Washington-For the sake of the rest of the NFC, Seattle and Washington ended up playing each other. They’re the two hottest teams, and they’re the two nobody wanted to face. You know the Falcons and 49ers will be on high alert watching this one. The good news is one of them has to lose.
This is Washington’s third straight playoff game against Seattle, which, obviously, means the Seahawks won the previous two. But both of those games were in the State of Washington. This one’s in Washington, DC, which I think could make a huge difference. The Seahawks have to make the long cross-country trip and deal with those crazy Redskins fans, who haven’t had a home playoff game since 1999. You want to tell me those fans weren’t a factor in Washington’s division-clinching win over Dallas last week? But I think the biggest factor working in the Redskins’ favor is the fact that the game’s not in Seattle. The Seahawks were the only team in the NFL to go undefeated at home this season, and they’re a much different team in Seattle. That’s not to say the Seahawks can’t win on the road (they had that huge win in Chicago during the season), but they’re unbeatable at home.
I can’t give either team an advantage because of the experience factor, because we’ve got two rookie quarterbacks facing each other in a playoff game for the first time in history. This really is the hardest game of the weekend to call. Both teams are so evenly matched that it’ll come down to a key play here or a costly turnover there. The Seahawks are favored, but I just have this feeling about the Redskins. The way they’re playing right now, it certainly seems like their run’s not going to stop after just one playoff game. If the game were in Seattle, my pick would absolutely go the other way, but Washington is the call in a tight one. I’ll say 27-21.
Last Week: 11-5
Season: 170-85-1
