Which Harbaugh Wins The Super Bowl 2013

After two weeks of hype and the game being broken down in every way possible, we’ve finally arrived at Super Bowl Sunday. We’ve heard so many reasons why both teams are going to win that it seems impossible either one will lose. But that, of course, is impossible. Either the 49ers will win their sixth Super Bowl title or the Ravens will win their second. This much is certain–Coach Harbaugh’s team is going to win. Other than that, I have no idea how Super Bowl XLVII is going to play out.

Before I get into my analysis of the matchup, here’s where I stand on a couple of the pressing matters leading up to Super Bowl XLVII. The Ravens will call heads, win the toss, and defer. Beyonce will actually sing and there will be a Destiny’s Child reunion. Now that I’ve got that off my chest, let’s move on to the Ravens and 49ers.

It’s crazy to think that the day after one original Raven, Jonathan Ogden, was elected to the Hall of Fame, another original Raven, Ray Lewis, will be playing in the Super Bowl in the final game of his career. The Ray Lewis Retirement Tour has been one of the motivating factors for Baltimore on this ride through the playoffs, and they’re determined to send him out a champion. But Lewis, while still the emotional leader, isn’t going to be the reason the Ravens win or lose this game. The offense is going to need to get it done. If Joe Flacco wants to be considered “elite,” this is his chance to prove it once and for all.

Ray Rice was shut down by the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. The 49ers have a better run defense than the Patriots do, so there’s no reason to think they won’t be able to shut him down, as well. Which means Flacco’s going to be a key. He’ll need to air it out. Of the six Pro Bowlers on the San Francisco defense, none of them were pass protectors. That’s the one advantage Baltimore has against the 49ers. Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin are both better than the San Francisco cornerbacks. And safeties Dashon Goldson and Donte Whitner will only be able to provide so much help, since double-teaming the receivers leaves them vulnerable to tight end Dennis Pitta catching screen pass after screen pass. The Baltimore offense has a big play receiver in Smith. They used him to burn the Broncos, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets the 49ers at least once.

San Francisco’s offense is more dynamic than Baltimore’s. Colin Kaepernick is able to do more things than Joe Flacco, and that’s going to be vital for the 49ers’ success. As great as the Ravens’ defense is, the 49ers have too many pieces for them to be able to stop them all. Focus on Frank Gore and Kaepernick can beat you through the air, taking advantage of his very good wide receiving corps. Try to shut down the air attack, and Gore might run wild. And even if they do shut both down, Kaepernick just might do everything himself and open up the offense that way. Even for a defense like Baltimore’s, that’s a lot of different things to worry about at the same time.

It’s not normally worth talking about special teams when breaking down the Super Bowl matchup, but in this case I think it’s relevant. Jacoby Jones is a very important figure in this game. Everybody knows how explosive he is on returns, and if he breaks one, look out. Just ask the Broncos about that. So it’s up to Andy Lee and David Akers to keep the ball away from him. Speaking of Akers, his problems this season have been well-documented. He’s been good so far in the playoffs, but if he reverts to his regular season form, keeping points off the board and giving the Ravens good field position, that could be just as costly for San Francisco as a big Jones return.

Both of these teams are known for their defense, but I think it’s going to be a fairly high-scoring game. The Ravens aren’t going to dominate defensively like they did against the Giants in their only other Super Bowl appearance. (It’s worth noting here that of the 92 previous Super Bowl teams, 90 scored at least one offensive touchdown, the 2000 Giants being one of the two exceptions.) Likewise, I like Baltimore’s big play ability on offense.

The old saying is that “defense wins championships.” That’s especially true when you’ve got two of the best defenses in the game. But, again, I don’t think it’ll come down to one defense dominating. It’ll come down to which defense comes up with the big turnover or big stop at a crucial moment. That’s where the game’s going to be won. Because I think both offenses will have a reasonable amount of success.

So who’s going to win? I’m going with Jim. The 49ers’ defense is younger, faster and more talented than Baltimore’s. I like their chances of holding the Ravens offense in check. At least enough to give their own offense a chance to win. And Colin Kaepernick is the X-factor. He brings a different dynamic that makes the San Francisco offense so multi-faceted, which is hard to contain on a good day.

It’s not going to be like the last three Super Bowls involving these two teams (closest margin of victory: the 49ers’ 23-point romp of the Chargers in Super Bowl XXIX that wasn’t even that close). I expect it to be a close one, although it won’t come down to the final play like last year. But in the end, I see the 49ers prevailing and joining the Steelers as six-time Super Bowl champs. I think the Ravens will be so preoccupied with Kaepernick that they’ll let Gore run wild en route to two touchdowns and MVP honors in the 49ers’ 27-21 victory.

Conference Championships: 1-1
Playoffs: 6-4
Season: 176-89-1